Earnings

Are These Stocks A Sure Bet? – Atlantic Power Corporation (AT), Federated Investors, Inc. (FII)

The shares of Atlantic Power Corporation have decreased by more than -6.38% this year alone. The shares of Federated Investors, Inc. (NYSE:FII), has slumped by -11.09% year to date as of 04/13/2018. The shares currently trade at $32.08 and have been able to report a change of -0.96% over the past one week.

The stock of Atlantic Power Corporation and Federated Investors, Inc. were two of the most active stocks on Friday. Investors seem to be very interested in what happens to the stocks of these two companies but do investors favor one over the other? We will analyze the growth, profitability, risk, valuation, and insider trends of both companies and see which one investors prefer.

Next 5Y EPS Growth: 21.60% versus 9.49%

When a company is able to grow consistently in terms of earnings at a high compound rate have the highest likelihood of creating value for its shareholders over time. Analysts have predicted that AT will grow it’s earning at a 21.60% annual rate in the next 5 years. This is in contrast to FII which will have a positive growth at a 9.49% annual rate. This means that the higher growth rate of AT implies a greater potential for capital appreciation over the years.

Profitability and Returns

Growth alone cannot be used to see if the company will be valuable. Shareholders will be the losers if a company invest in ventures that aren’t profitable enough to support upbeat growth. In order for us to accurately measure profitability and return, we will be using the EBITDA margin and Return on Investment (ROI), which balances the difference in capital structure. The ROI of AT is -8.00% while that of FII is 38.10%. These figures suggest that FII ventures generate a higher ROI than that of AT.

Cash Flow



The value of a stock is ultimately determined by the amount of cash flow that the investors have available. Over the last 12 months, AT’s free cash flow per share is a positive 0.01, while that of FII is positive 4.67.

Liquidity and Financial Risk

The ability of a company to meet up with its short-term obligations and be able to clear its longer-term debts is measured using Liquidity and leverage ratios. The current ratio for AT is 1.30 and that of FII is 3.40. This implies that it is easier for AT to cover its immediate obligations over the next 12 months than FII.

Valuation

AT currently trades at a P/S of 0.59 while FII trades at a forward P/E of 11.71, a P/B of 4.09, and a P/S of 3.00. This means that looking at the earnings, book values and sales basis, AT is the cheaper one. It is very obvious that earnings are the most important factors to investors, thus analysts are most likely to place their bet on the P/E.

Analyst Price Targets and Opinions




The mistake some people make is that they think a cheap stock has more value to it. In order to know the value of a stock, there is need to compare its current price to its likely trading price in the future. The price of AT is currently at a -12% to its one-year price target of 2.50. Looking at its rival pricing, FII is at a -4.95% relative to its price target of 33.75.

When looking at the investment recommendation on say a scale of 1 to 5 (1 being a strong buy, 3 a hold, and 5 a sell), AT is given a 3.00 while 3.30 placed for FII. This means that analysts are more bullish on the outlook for FII stocks.

Insider Activity and Investor Sentiment

Short interest or otherwise called the percentage of a stock’s tradable shares currently being shorted is another data that investors use to get a handle on sentiment. The short ratio for AT is 2.08 while that of FII is just 7.25. This means that analysts are more bullish on the forecast for AT stock.

Conclusion

The stock of Federated Investors, Inc. defeats that of Atlantic Power Corporation when the two are compared, with FII taking 6 out of the total factors that were been considered. FII happens to be more profitable, generates a higher ROI, has higher cash flow per share, higher liquidity and has a lower financial risk. When looking at the stock valuation, FII is the cheaper one on an earnings, book value and sales basis. Finally, the sentiment signal for FII is better on when it is viewed on short interest.

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